The Nasdaq rose 1.86% in September while the Dow fell 4.29% and small caps dropped 5.40%. Only one sector finished higher. Here's where our 30 names sit against their moving averages.
Market Overview
Welcome back to The Wealth Catchers' Watchlist! September was a split month. The Nasdaq gained 1.86%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.45%, the Dow Jones fell 4.29% and the Russell 2000 dropped 5.40%. The VIX rose from 14.92 to 16.34. Underneath the headline numbers, the equal-weight S&P 500 fell 5.18% while the cap-weighted index lost just 0.58%. A small group of large technology stocks held the indexes up while most stocks moved lower.
Rates, the Fed and Oil
The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% in September, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed from 4.75% to 5.26%. August inflation came in at 3.4% year over year (2.4% core), unemployment held at 4.1%, and WTI crude rose from about $87 to about $96 a barrel. Higher rates and higher energy costs are a headwind for rate-sensitive and economically sensitive businesses, and September's sector numbers reflected that.
Sector Rotation: One Sector Up, Ten Down
Information Technology gained 4.96%. Every other sector finished lower: Communication Services -0.44%, Health Care -1.24%, Energy -3.85%, Industrials -4.65%, Consumer Staples -5.15%, Utilities -6.61%, Consumer Discretionary -6.65%, Real Estate -7.25%, Financials -7.47% and Materials -7.57%. In March, Utilities, Energy and Materials had led for three straight months. In September, Materials finished last. When leadership is this narrow, prices across most of the market come down toward our levels even while the headline index holds up.
How We're Reading the Charts
We track the 100, 200, 253 and 400 SMAs on both the daily and the weekly chart. Daily Entry runs across the 100-, 200- and 253-day SMAs, and Weekly Entry across the 100-, 200- and 253-week SMAs. The 400 joins the range where it's in play: where price has recently traded at it, where price has already broken below the 253, or where it lines up with another key level. Where the 400 sits far below the action, we treat it as long-term context rather than an entry level.
What We're Watching Heading Into October
Nine names are inside their daily range: GOOGL, AMZN, JPM, RTX, CAT, URI, PWR, GLD and SLV, with QTUM sitting right at the top of its range. Five are below their daily range and inside their weekly range: WMT, NFLX, NEE, WM and MLM. RSI is at or below 35 for NEE (24), RTX (25), WM (27) and JPM (32), while TMO is overbought on both charts. Eight names are 20% or more off their 52-week highs, but a deep drawdown isn't the same as a good entry: HOOD, CAT, GLD and SLV are still above their entire weekly range. The tightest confluences are in MSFT, META, V and WM, where several key moving averages sit within a few dollars of each other.
Closing Note
The closing message is the same one we come back to every month. Structure over sentiment. Stay patient, stay informed, and let the price come to you.
“The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets.”
Keep on buying assets and keep your money working.
Index Performance
| Index | Performance |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 (September 2026) | -0.45% |
| NASDAQ (September 2026) | +1.86% |
| Dow Jones (September 2026) | -4.29% |
| Russell 2000 (September 2026) | -5.40% |
| VIX (Sep 30) | 16.34 |
Top Sectors
Bottom Sectors
Stock Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | $432–$452 | $376–$448 |
| AAPL | $259–$313 | $207–$256 |
| GOOGL | $326–$356 | $181–$260 |
| NVDA | $197–$214 | $97–$171 |
| META | $613–$649 | $438–$644 |
| AMZN | $228–$254 | $175–$227 |
| JPM | $301–$336 | $210–$293 |
| WMT | $109–$118 | $74–$106 |
| LLY | $943–$1,147 | $671–$923 |
| CRWD | $133–$196 | $81–$127 |
| NFLX | $78–$99 | $65–$97 |
| HOOD | $93–$103 | $42–$85 |
| V | $337–$351 | $276–$338 |
| RTX | $172–$196 | $123–$164 |
| NEE | $81–$87 | $73–$80 |
| TMO | $512–$550 | $488–$540 |
| WM | $222–$225 | $193–$223 |
| SHOP | $126–$136 | $84–$125 |
| CAT | $741–$877 | $382–$569 |
| URI | $867–$1,052 | $617–$853 |
| PWR | $569–$672 | $292–$459 |
| MLM | $551–$597 | $409–$574 |
| MU | $578–$948 | $190–$360 |
ETF Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| VOO | $616–$693 | $491–$605 |
| VGT | $95–$118 | $69–$92 |
| VUG | $78–$87 | $59–$77 |
| SMH | $466–$583 | $241–$367 |
| QTUM | $129–$152 | $73–$108 |
| GLD | $370–$416 | $251–$351 |
| SLV | $51–$66 | $32–$47 |
Key Takeaways
- →September: Nasdaq +1.86%, S&P 500 -0.45%, Dow -4.29%, Russell 2000 -5.40%.
- →Information Technology (+4.96%) was the only sector to finish higher; Materials (-7.57%) and Financials (-7.47%) led the declines.
- →The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00%, and the 10-year yield rose from 4.75% to 5.26%.
- →Five watchlist names (WMT, NFLX, NEE, WM, MLM) are below their daily ranges and inside their weekly ranges.
- →Four names are near or in oversold territory: NEE (RSI 24), RTX (25), WM (27), JPM (32).
- →Deep drawdowns aren't automatically bargains: HOOD, CAT, GLD and SLV are 25–50% off their highs but still above their weekly ranges.
Timothy Monecla is the founder of The Wealth Catchers and a long-term investor focused on U.S. equity markets and generational wealth building. He created this platform to give everyday people the investing foundation they were never taught — through clear, data-backed education and no-hype guidance.
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