Our October 2022 stock and ETF watchlist with entry points, sector analysis, and market outlook.
Market Overview
Welcome back to The Wealth Catchers' watchlist. Took a much needed break and I am happy to be back to serve. First off, thoughts and prayers go out to my fellow Floridians and to others that may have been affected by Hurricane Ian. If you managed to make it through the storm unscathed please be grateful. I feel like we as Floridians oftentimes don't take these hurricanes seriously, especially after you have been through a few. But you never know how bad things can get when it comes to dealing with mother nature. Always be proactive and not reactive.
Fed & Monetary Policy
This month's opening statement will be very brief. The month of September the market was in a downward spiral. With all the major indexes falling more than 8%. The Fed also did in fact raise interest rates another 75 basis points (visit the August 2022 Watchlist to find out about the CME FedWatch Tool). Now the 75 basis point was expected, what spooked investors is when will the Fed STOP raising rates? The market needs to get some type of solid confirmation to when this will end. Remember the market doesn't like uncertainty, it likes to have an idea of how the future will play out. Also, one of our beloved companies, Nike, fell off a cliff due to the fact that it has all the excess inventory. This inventory is not moving as expected and will need to be discounted in order to get the products to move. This sent the stock tanking to the low $80's. I've mentioned the excess inventory in the July 2022 Watchlist when it came to Target and Walmart. This will become more prevalent as the year goes on and into next year probably, especially since we had these three large retailers announce this over the past few months. It would be hard to believe that they're the ONLY ones to have excess inventory on hand that isn't selling. Glad to be back and hope you all acquire some assets this month. Until next time.
Monthly Performance
At the close of month all the indexes are down. The Dow Jones (-8.8%), S&P 500 (-9.3%), NASDAQ (-10.5%), Russell 2000 (-8.67%). At the close of the month of September the VIX was at 31.62. At the close of the month the "Fear and Greed" index was at 15 indicating extreme fear in the market.
Index Performance
| Index | Performance |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones (Sep 2022) | -8.80% |
| S&P 500 (Sep 2022) | -9.30% |
| NASDAQ (Sep 2022) | -10.50% |
| Russell 2000 (Sep 2022) | -8.67% |
| VIX | 31.62 |
| Fear & Greed | 15 (Extreme Fear) |
Top Sectors
Bottom Sectors
Stock Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| NKE | $80–$82 | $80–$93 |
| MSFT | $237–$242 | $233–$246 |
| AAPL | $138–$151 | $130–$155 |
| TSLA | $260–$313 | $207–$315 |
| AMZN | $103–$150 | $103–$136 |
| NVDA | $118–$155 | $117–$145 |
| ABNB | $93–$103 | $103 |
| SQ | $64–$90 | $60–$91 |
| SHOP | $31–$42 | $31–$49 |
| ADBE | $270 | $256–$330 |
ETF Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| ARKK | $38–$45 | $38–$54 |
| VOO | $334–$343 | $327–$359 |
| SMH | $190–$200 | $191–$217 |
| VGT | $321–$346 | $293–$343 |
| VUG | $222–$247 | $214–$235 |
Key Takeaways
- →September 2022: S&P -9.3% — worst September since 2008. VIX at 31.62; extreme fear.
- →10-year Treasury above 4% for first time since 2008 — major headwind for valuations.
- →Fed's third consecutive 75bps hike; "higher for longer" narrative fully established.
- →"The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." — Blood is flowing.
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