Our May 2025 stock and ETF watchlist with entry points, sector analysis, and market outlook.
Market Overview
Welcome back to The Wealth Catchers' watchlist. The month of April started off extremely dismal as the markets reacted violently to "Liberation Day", Trumps' widespread tariffs across the globe. The confusing and extreme percentages caused a massive selloff in which we saw the S&P 500 fall 11.54% in one week. Relief was brought back into the market when Trump announced a pause on all tariffs, except for those on China. This action caused another market frenzy as investors saw the S&P 500 rinse 9.52% in one day. The volatility in the market was so extreme that we saw the Fear & Greed index fall to 4, the VIX get as high as 52, and almost all media outlets ringing the recession bell. April ended in the negative but came a long way from where it fell to, so it's safe to take it as a win. The month of May will most likely have more uncertainty for us as investors as we watch this tariff/trade war play out, especially with China, which has made it clear they will not back down. There has also been this theme of "sell America" that seems to be coming into play as we see money leaving U.S. bonds and equities and we see the international markets rise. Countries like Brazil (EWZ, up 19.41% YTD), Germany (DAX, up 24.43% YTD), China (MCHI, up 10.09% YTD), Mexico (EWW, up 21.04% YTD) and the continent of Africa (AFK, up 15.77% YTD) have been some of the few that have benefited greatly. I personally have my viewpoints against investing internationally, but times like this certainly drive home the importance of some diversification in your portfolio. I approach it like this: concentration for growth, then diversification for preservation of wealth. Also keep in mind, "Sell in May and Go Away" is something to look out for as we may see some selling going into the summer months for vacation.
Closing Note
I appreciate you all checking in this month. Stay invested; stay positive. Key Investor Dates May 2025 Economic Reports & Fed EventsMay 2 (Fri): April Jobs Report (BLS) Key insight into labor market health post-tariffsMay 67 (TuesWed): FOMC Meeting No rate change expected, but policy direction & Powell's remarks are criticalMay 8 (Thurs): Q1 Productivity & Costs Report Tracks labor efficiency & wage pressureMay 13 (Tues): April Consumer Price Index (CPI) Crucial inflation gauge, especially post-trade policiesMay 15 (Thurs): April Producer Price Index (PPI) Early look at wholesale inflationMay 16 (Fri): April Import/Export Price Indexes Measures inflation in global tradeMay 21 (Wed): State Employment Report Regional labor strength breakdownMay 28 (Wed): FOMC Meeting Minutes Insight into Fed's internal discussions on rates & economic riskMay 30 (Fri): April PCE Price Index Fed's preferred inflation metric Also, here's your friendly reminder:
“The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets.”
Keep on buying assets and keep your money working.
Index Performance
| Index | Performance |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones (Apr 2025) | -3.15% |
| S&P 500 (Apr 2025) | -1.14% |
| NASDAQ (Apr 2025) | -0.02% |
| Russell 2000 (Apr 2025) | -2.39% |
| VIX | 24.70 |
| Fear & Greed | 35 (Fear) |
Top Sectors
Bottom Sectors
Stock Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | $345–$408 | $315–$394 |
| AAPL | $170–$229 | $168–$204 |
| GOOGL | $141–$177 | $129–$161 |
| AMZN | $166–$211 | $154–$175 |
| NVDA | $95–$126 | $48–$92 |
| META | $479–$615 | $334–$469 |
| NFLX | $797–$954 | $514–$652 |
| V | $301–$333 | $240–$279 |
| WMT | $82–$94 | $56–$70 |
| PG | $157–$169 | $150–$161 |
| SHOP | $87–$106 | $76–$84 |
| ADBE | $333–$480 | $325–$508 |
| CRWD | $335–$378 | $222–$287 |
| COST | $908–$972 | $567–$770 |
| JPM | $227–$248 | $160–$197 |
| LLY | $678–$844 | $447–$731 |
| TMO | $410–$554 | $416–$553 |
| ADP | $280–$300 | $227–$261 |
| SHW | $317–$359 | $280–$319 |
| RTX | $119–$125 | $93–$104 |
| CMG | $45–$58 | $39–$51 |
| WING | $205–$334 | $201–$289 |
| DKNG | $29–$40 | $31–$37 |
| HOOD | $32–$46 | $23–$34 |
| WM | $215–$222 | $166–$198 |
| NEE | $62–$75 | $70–$75 |
ETF Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| VUG | $317–$398 | $292–$346 |
| VGT | $452–$591 | $431–$527 |
| VOO | $443–$532 | $413–$477 |
| SMH | $171–$240 | $154–$209 |
| QTUM | $69–$79 | $52–$62 |
| GLD | $246–$268 | $191–$219 |
| SLV | $29 | $24–$26 |
Key Takeaways
- →April saw an 11.54% S&P drop then a 9.52% single-day recovery — extreme volatility, not a new trend.
- →China tariffs remain unresolved. TACO trade (tariff reversal anticipation) driving short-term moves.
- →"Sell in May and Go Away" seasonal pattern may add pressure — watch closely.
- →International outperformance (Brazil, Germany, Mexico) suggests portfolio diversification has value.
- →Bitcoin hit $112,000 — risk-on sentiment returning. Fear & Greed at 35 = still in accumulation range.
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