Our March 2022 stock and ETF watchlist with entry points, sector analysis, and market outlook.
Market Overview
The month of February brought upon us nothing but a sea of red. Unless you have been living under a rock you now know that Russia has gone to war with Ukraine. The lead up to the invasion created a ton of uncertainty and when it finally happened the market reacted even more violently. Remember, the market does not like uncertainty and a sell off of equities will show that. Sanctions have been placed on Russia but that has not been enough to deter them away from trying to take over Ukraine.
Crypto & Digital Assets
In this market environment asset classes like oil have been doing great along with those able to profit off the VIX. Remember, when there is a sell off in the market the VIX will do the opposite. Also defensive stocks like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Technologies have been running to the upside. Another asset class that has been doing decent is crypto. There's been a small bounce in the two major players (Bitcoin and Ethereum) due to the fact that banks are not allowing the citizens of these warring counties to access their funds. Crypto has become a lifeline for those that have been able to use their crypto wallets. It's definitely a sad time for these two countries. The hope is that this will end swiftly but who knows, this could drag out for quite some time. One thing that I have taken from this is that the world will keep moving. The markets will keep providing opportunities, businesses will stay open, and money will keep circulating throughout the economy. It's honestly pretty eye opening. To see how detached the market is from reality in regard to empathy. But then again, this is just history repeating itself. It's happened before and will happen again. As investors all we can do is take into account of what's going on and have some empathy but the BEST way to achieve great returns is to be emotionless. You shouldn't be selling assets in a time like this, making risky trades, our second guessing yourself. Quality companies at great prices, that's what the focus should be
Fed & Monetary Policy
Also, don't forget the rate hikes, QT, and inflation are still a factor. The war is what is grabbing headlines at the moment.
Monthly Performance
At the close of the month all the indexes are down. The Dow Jones (-6.55%), S&P 500 (-6.17%), NASDAQ (-6.14%), Russell 2000 (-1.04%). At the close of the month the VIX was at 29.66. The "Fear and Greed" index was at 18 at the end of the month indicating extreme fear. Z: $44-$66 (Daily Chart) broke the 50 SMA from the last post. Currently over that at the moment. Next strong trend indication is breaking the 100 SMA which is $64.54 ATM.
Index Performance
| Index | Performance |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones (Feb 2022) | -6.55% |
| S&P 500 (Feb 2022) | -6.17% |
| NASDAQ (Feb 2022) | -6.14% |
| Russell 2000 (Feb 2022) | -1.04% |
| VIX | 29.66 |
Top Sectors
Bottom Sectors
Stock Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| NKE | $132–$151 | $128–$132 |
| ABNB | $140–$160 | $137–$162 |
| MSFT | $282–$298 | $270 |
| AAPL | $152–$169 | $141–$148 |
| Z | $44–$66 | $35–$63 |
| SQ | $87–$130 | $108–$128 |
| PYPL | $85–$155 | $93–$157 |
| MCD | $239–$254 | $234–$243 |
| WMT | $132–$139 | $132 |
| TSLA | $784–$930 | $672–$808 |
| SBUX | $89–$98 | $86–$99 |
| V | $211–$224 | $194–$224 |
| PG | $152–$157 | $145 |
| WM | $139–$151 | $139 |
| CHPT | $12–$17 | $8–$18 |
| IIPR | $178–$209 | $160–$204 |
| SHOP | $560–$809 | $577–$872 |
| ADBE | $422–$483 | $393–$509 |
| AMZN | $2,863–$3,150 | $2,833–$3,158 |
| CRWD | $161–$217 | $150–$215 |
| NVDA | $213–$260 | $205 |
| AFRM | $45–$68 | $40–$56 |
ETF Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| ARKK | $61–$79 | $52–$74 |
| VUG | $265–$290 | $259–$292 |
| VGT | $386–$417 | $388–$410 |
| VOO | $388–$409 | $385–$418 |
| SMH | $255–$287 | $250–$287 |
Key Takeaways
- →February 2022: Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24 — VIX spiked to 29.66.
- →Energy continues to dominate; oil above $100/barrel on supply disruption fears.
- →Geopolitical risk premium compressing valuations across all growth and tech names.
- →Patient approach required — wait for confirmation above key moving averages before entering.
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