Our July 2025 stock and ETF watchlist with entry points, sector analysis, and market outlook.
Market Overview
Welcome back to The Wealth Catchers' Watchlist! The month of June was a positive one for investors. We saw the market hit an all-time high in the S&P and NASDAQ. The Dow Jones and Russell 2000 also ended the month on a high, both rallying over 5%. With all the geopolitical tension and the scrutiny of the economy, I must say that it is quite surprising how far we have come. From the tarriffs to interest rates still not being cut and what many view to be war on the horizon, the market keeps pushing up. When it comes to times like this, it's always great to remind yourself that the market and the economy are often operating in their own worlds. Sometimes they move in tandem, and more often than not, they can be polar opposites of one another. A huge factor in this rally could be attributed to the AI wave, as we see the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) end the month up 14.62%. It's safe to say the AI optimism is still there and won't be leaving anytime soon. Many believe that we are still in the infancy stage of the capabilities of AI and what it can do for us. According to research from Deloitte, the revenues from the semiconductor industry could eclipse $1 trillion by 2030. Again, we are still very early to the party. Also, be creative when looking to invest in this space. Think of infrastructure like data centers or memory, cloud, cybersecurity, and software. All of these will feed into each other; go with the leaders in the space, and it'll all work out.
Fed & Monetary Policy
Now onto the Fed and macro. The Fed chose to keep rates unchanged at the last Fed meeting held on June 17th-18th. This wasn't met with too much criticism in my opinion, but it does have investors wondering when a rate cut will finally happen. The Fed has stated that there will be two rate cuts in 2025 totaling 50 basis points and another quarter cut for 2026. Again, this is what's projected; we can easily go down to one or none depending on how the next few months play out. As a reminder, the Fed is data-dependent; there is no telegraphing moves; they react to the data. Right now there's anticipation of inflation pressures based on how these tariffs will play out and how the geopolitical pressure will play a factor. The next Fed meeting is slated for July 29th-30th. According to the FedWatch Tool, there is a 21.7% probability that a rate cut will happen at this meeting. So it's safe to say that we will see rates get cut towards the later months of the year. There is a 71.8% probability that a cut will happen in September.
Closing Note
here's your friendly reminder:
“The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets.”
Keep on buying assets and keep your money working.
Index Performance
| Index | Performance |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones (Jun 2025) | +4.23% |
| S&P 500 (Jun 2025) | +4.53% |
| NASDAQ (Jun 2025) | +5.86% |
| Russell 2000 (Jun 2025) | +5.07% |
| VIX | 16.73 |
| Fear & Greed | 67 (Greed) |
Top Sectors
Bottom Sectors
Stock Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | $420–$425 | $324–$406 |
| AAPL | $170–$224 | $171–$205 |
| GOOGL | $168–$173 | $132–$160 |
| WMT | $87–$95 | $58–$74 |
| V | $314–$348 | $246–$290 |
| PG | $157–$168 | $152–$162 |
| WM | $220–$231 | $171–$204 |
| SHOP | $94–$104 | $74–$84 |
| ADBE | $333–$467 | $275–$468 |
| AMZN | $201–$206 | $155–$182 |
| CRWD | $358–$416 | $235–$315 |
| NVDA | $125–$130 | $53–$101 |
| COST | $940–$994 | $592–$813 |
| JPM | $238–$255 | $166–$208 |
| NEE | $62–$75 | $69–$75 |
| LLY | $678–$820 | $469–$759 |
| TMO | $386–$527 | $371–$534 |
| ADP | $291–$307 | $234–$269 |
| SHW | $331–$359 | $285–$327 |
| META | $590–$630 | $349–$503 |
| RTX | $124–$132 | $96–$108 |
| CMG | $45–$56 | $40–$53 |
| WING | $277–$324 | $208–$303 |
| DKNG | $29–$39 | $30–$38 |
| HOOD | $40–$55 | $22–$29 |
| NFLX | $889–$1,071 | $546–$724 |
ETF Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| VUG | $394–$400 | $300–$359 |
| VGT | $586–$599 | $442–$543 |
| VOO | $529–$535 | $422–$490 |
| SMH | $233–$242 | $160–$218 |
| QTUM | $73–$81 | $54–$65 |
| GLD | $260–$292 | $195–$230 |
| SLV | $29–$31 | $24–$26 |
Key Takeaways
- →SMH surged 14.62% in June. Semiconductor industry revenues projected to exceed $1T by 2030.
- →Nvidia briefly became the first $4T company. AI infrastructure investment cycle accelerating.
- →Fed held rates at June 17-18 meeting. 71.8% probability of a cut by September.
- →Magnificent Seven concentration (~33% of S&P 500) creates fragility if any key name stumbles.
- →Valuations stretched at 22.5x forward P/E near greed extremes — discipline required.
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