Our January 2025 stock and ETF watchlist with entry points, sector analysis, and market outlook.
Market Context: December 2024
December 2024 concluded with broad market weakness across most indices. The decline was attributed to Fed guidance suggesting only 1–2 rate cuts for 2025 and year-end profit-taking. Despite recent pullbacks, major indices hit all-time highs earlier in the month. Full-year 2024: Dow +12.88%, S&P 500 +23.31%, NASDAQ +28.64%, Russell 2000 +10.02%. For 2025 we expect slower gains (~10% S&P 500 target of 6,500), data-dependent Fed policy, and sector leadership shifting toward semiconductors, cybersecurity, quantum computing, and nuclear energy.
Index Performance
| Index | Performance |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones (Dec 2024) | -5.00% |
| S&P 500 (Dec 2024) | -2.74% |
| NASDAQ (Dec 2024) | -0.48% |
| Russell 2000 (Dec 2024) | -8.38% |
| S&P 500 (Full Year 2024) | +23.31% |
| NASDAQ (Full Year 2024) | +28.64% |
Top Sectors
Bottom Sectors
Stock Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| ABNB | $111–$142 | $104–$138 |
| MSFT | $398–$426 | $300–$375 |
| AAPL | $208–$232 | $158–$194 |
| GOOGL | $164–$170 | $121–$145 |
| AMZN | $185–$196 | $149–$157 |
| NVDA | $108–$131 | $40–$76 |
| TSLA | $231–$287 | $220–$242 |
| META | $509–$568 | $306–$401 |
| SHOP | $78–$89 | $69–$78 |
| WMT | $71–$84 | $53–$62 |
| V | $281–$292 | $230–$261 |
| PG | $142–$150 | $147–$158 |
| WM | $191–$213 | $158–$187 |
| ADBE | $433–$526 | $417–$502 |
| CRWD | $309–$317 | $201–$244 |
| COST | $824–$914 | $520–$686 |
| JPM | $206–$226 | $149–$178 |
| NEE | $72–$79 | $71–$76 |
| LLY | $727–$863 | $402–$654 |
| TMO | $494–$572 | $521–$550 |
| ADP | $262–$288 | $217–$247 |
| SHW | $338–$371 | $269–$298 |
| RTX | $108–$121 | $89–$100 |
| CMG | $57–$60 | $37–$49 |
| WING | $281–$370 | $191–$278 |
| DKNG | $39–$40 | $32–$34 |
ETF Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| VUG | $364–$393 | $278–$322 |
| VGT | $556–$598 | $408–$493 |
| VOO | $498–$532 | $395–$451 |
| SMH | $232–$245 | $143–$191 |
| QTUM | $63–$67 | $48–$56 |
Key Takeaways
- →Full-year 2024: S&P +23.31%, NASDAQ +28.64%. December gave back some gains on Fed hawkishness.
- →For 2025: expect slower gains (~10%), data-dependent Fed, only 1–2 rate cuts projected.
- →DeepSeek disrupted AI hyperscaler confidence in January — watch capex spending carefully.
- →Trump tariffs: 25% on Canada/Mexico, 10% on China. Consumer cost pass-through expected.
- →Semiconductors, cybersecurity, quantum (QTUM), nuclear energy expected to lead quietly in 2025.
- →IIPR removed from watchlist after -34.14% in 2024.
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