Our January 2024 stock and ETF watchlist with entry points, sector analysis, and market outlook.
Market Overview
Happy New Year! Welcome back to The Wealth Catchers' watchlist. The month of December was a great one for investors, as we saw all the indices end in the green. The Dow Jones hit an all-time high, the S&P 500 almost broke it's all-time high, and the Russell 2000 had a strong rally. This was a great end to 2023, a year that had plenty of doubt for the market going into it. The market started off rocky and had a nice run-up into the summer months, but was quickly met with a sharp selloff that added more pessimism to the fire. It turns out that that selloff created a great buying opportunity for many to capitalize on and reap the benefits of this 4th quarter rally.
Fed & Monetary Policy
In 2023, the market overcame many challenges. You can scour the web to see the predictions from many institutions that had the S&P 500 not closing the year above $4,500. From the SVB collapse, aggressive rate hikes, wars, and quantitative tightening, the market has remained resilient through it all. The Magnificent Seven led this rally, but we began to see the market broaden out at the tail end. The allure of AI also took the market by storm when many investors and companies saw the power of generative AI and how much consumers (retail and business) loved it. The end of 2023 has led many to a point of optimism for 2024. Even after this great performance, it is best to still proceed with caution. As an investor, you never want to be too optimistic or too pessimistic. The market will do what it does; you just have to make sure that you are in a position to capitalize on opportunities. What can we expect in 2024?There can easily be a laundry list of things investors and experts expect to happen in 2024, some good, some bad. My list is short and simplified, in my opinion:The Fed has already stated that there should be at least three rate cuts in 2024. This should be bullish for the market.The broadening of market gains should continue. The Mag7 lost some steam, and we saw other players come into the market. I'm looking for small caps (Russell 2000) to have a great year, especially with the rate cuts.The presidential election will be this year, and there should be some volatility in the market during this time. Prepare for large swings around that time of year, as this could lead to some buying opportunities. I would recommend brushing up on the candidates that have the best chance to win and seeing which companies, industries, and sectors would benefit from that candidate winning.Pay attention to sector rotation. Last year's losers could flip and be this year's winners. Keep your eyes on Utilities, Energy, and Consumer Staples and try to apply the satellite theory to these sectors (Pick the top two heaviest-weighted stocks in each respective sector).Last but not least, what will the market most likely be rewarding this year? My guess is semiconductors (ideally at the manufacturer (ASML) or foundry (TSMC) level). I mention these two because they are at the top of their respective fields. TSMC has a ton of geopolitical risk tied to it, so be cautious. Next would be data centers, cybersecurity, industrial, and probably financials, only because of the damage to the banking sector.I hope 2024 is a great year for you all, and I truly appreciate you being along for the ride all these years. More life and more blessings to you all, and may this be your best year yet!
Closing Note
here's your friendly reminder:
“The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets.”
Keep on buying assets and keep your money working.
Index Performance
| Index | Performance |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones (Dec 2023) | +4.84% |
| S&P 500 (Dec 2023) | +4.42% |
| NASDAQ (Dec 2023) | +5.52% |
| Russell 2000 (Dec 2023) | +12.05% |
| Dow Jones (Full Year 2023) | +13.74% |
| S&P 500 (Full Year 2023) | +24.73% |
| NASDAQ (Full Year 2023) | +44.52% |
Top Sectors
Bottom Sectors
Stock Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| NKE | $104–$113 | $86–$110 |
| ABNB | $124–$132 | $104–$124 |
| MSFT | $313–$345 | $241–$291 |
| AAPL | $172–$184 | $126–$164 |
| GOOGL | $119–$134 | $100–$116 |
| MCD | $260–$275 | $236–$267 |
| WMT | $151–$160 | $136–$146 |
| TSLA | $216–$242 | $176–$216 |
| SBUX | $97–$101 | $75–$95 |
| V | $235–$245 | $208–$222 |
| PG | $142–$150 | $137–$148 |
| WM | $162–$165 | $138–$161 |
| IIPR | $78–$82 | $66–$87 |
| SHOP | $56–$62 | $51–$72 |
| ADBE | $464–$560 | $430–$465 |
| AMZN | $121–$139 | $87–$123 |
| CRWD | $155–$191 | $99–$164 |
| NVDA | $362–$458 | $183–$277 |
| COST | $520–$564 | $400–$509 |
| JPM | $144–$151 | $112–$136 |
| NEE | $59–$68 | $47–$75 |
| LLY | $464–$574 | $257–$393 |
| TMO | $483–$522 | $464–$541 |
| ADP | $213–$239 | $196–$230 |
| SHW | $251–$269 | $234–$248 |
| META | $242–$310 | $156–$251 |
| RTX | $73–$91 | $75–$93 |
ETF Entry Points
| Ticker | Daily Entry | Weekly Entry |
|---|---|---|
| VUG | $266–$287 | $237–$256 |
| VGT | $408–$439 | $337–$385 |
| VOO | $393–$409 | $348–$384 |
| SMH | $141–$154 | $107–$128 |
Key Takeaways
- →Full-year 2023: S&P +24.73%, NASDAQ +44.52% — strongest year since 2019.
- →CRWD +147%, NVDA +246%, META +184%, SHOP +118% led the comeback from 2022 bear market.
- →NKE, NEE, RTX, TMO lagged — potential value setups going into 2024.
- →Fed expected to pivot to rate cuts mid-2024 — watch for impact on real estate and utilities.
- →10% correction targets: Dow 34,000, S&P 4,327, NASDAQ 14,508, Russell 2,204.
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